Summer 2014 Forecast
A view of Hooken Cliffs at Branscombe from the kayak taken on a hot & humid summer's day.

This long-term forecast for the summer of 2014 was created on Sunday 1st June 2014 concerning the Otter Valley and surrounded low-lying hinterland areas of south-east Devon such as Exmouth, Honiton and over to Axminster in the far east.

Note that this forecast is really a bit of fun and should be taken with a large pinch of salt. Seasonal forecasting is still very much in its infancy and the confidence of this forecast is very low as it is really nothing more than an educated guess!

A fine and settled start to summer with June bringing long spells dry and warm weather. The end of June is always a critical time and could be the start of the 'Return of the Westerlies' but I think that this summer will not see the wet, dull and cool conditions that dominated the the summers of 2007 to 2012. With sea temperatures in the Atlantic below normal to our south west and above normal to the north west, this could lead to more blocking situations with a more southerly aspect to our weather. Overall a generally warm and often settled summer but the potential for unsettled and/or thundery spells cannot be ruled out from time to time.

    Forecast Actual
June:

A generally warm, dry and reasonably sunny month. A little unsettled at first but becoming increasingly settled at the month progresses due to a ridge of Azores High dominating to the west and south. Maybe turning a little more unsettled at the end of the month with thunderstorms.

Mean Minimum = 11°C (+0.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 22°C (+0.5°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 220 hrs (120%)
Total Monthly Rain = 30 mm (65%)
Mean Minimum = 11.4°C (+0.5°C)
Mean Maximum = 22.0°C (+2.6°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 260 hrs (132%)
Total Monthly Rain = 35 mm (70%)
July:
 

July could start warm, humid and thundery but a spell of settled, sunny, anticyclonic weather may dominate the 2nd and 3rd weeks. Heatwave risk develops as the month progresses with the end of July turning hot, humid and with thunderstorms (I'm making it up here).

Mean Minimum = 14°C (+1.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 23°C (+1.5°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 240 hrs (120%)
Total Monthly Rain = 60 mm (140%)
Mean Minimum = 13.0°C (-0.1°C)
Mean Maximum = 24.2°C (+3.3°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 272 hrs (131%)
Total Monthly Rain = 36 mm (73%)
August:

I expect August to be warm, humid and with thundery outbreaks. The old adage of 'Three fine days and a thunderstorm' could apply to this month. A heatwave risk peaks during the first two weeks.

Mean Minimum = 14°C (+1.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 23°C (+1.0°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 220 hrs (110%)
Total Monthly Rain = 80 mm (130%)
 
September:

I regard September as a continuation of summer, especially up to the start of the 4th week (around the 21st). This month is likely to be a warm or even hot at times and humid for the first half then increasingly unsettled and wetter from the 3rd week onwards (I really am making this forecast up here).

Mean Minimum = 12°C (+0.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 20°C (+1.0°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 190 hrs (100%)
Total Monthly Rain = 60 mm (120%)
 

A warmer but wetter summer than 2013 and certainly better than the very wet and cool summer of 2012. Temperature, sunshine and rainfall all likely to be above normal despite a dry June. A humid summer with a higher than average risk of heatwaves, especially from late July onwards.

Webcam Gallery World Weather Month So Far Year So Far Met Office 5 Day Sea Temp UV Light Recording Data Humidity Calcs