Winter 2013/14 Forecast

Dartmoor Snow.

This long-term forecast for the winter of 2013/14 was updated on Saturday 30th November 2013 concerning the Otter Valley and surrounded low-lying hinterland areas of south-east Devon such as Exmouth, Honiton and over to Axminster in the far east.

Note that this forecast is really a bit of fun and should be taken with a large pinch of salt. Seasonal forecasting is still very much in its infancy and the confidence of this forecast is very low as it is really nothing more than an educated guess!

After a settled, anticyclonic end to Autumn I expect this to continue into December. From about the 10th onwards it is looking like the Atlantic will start to exert itself bringing a westerly 'zonal' type weather regime. The Azores High should keep things a little more settled for us but there will still be rain and wind at times. This mild westerly weather could persist right through into January. Then the confidence drops to near zero! Guess work from now on but I will go for a generally mild winter though colder than average conditions may become more prevalent from late-January and February.

December:

After a settled start the weather is likely to become milder as Atlantic air dominates.

Forecast	Actual
Mean Minimum = 4°C (+0.7°C) Mean Maximum = 9°C (+0.3°C) Total Monthly Sun = 65 hrs (100%) Total Monthly Rain = 70 mm (80%)	Mean Minimum = 3.5°C (+0.2°C) Mean Maximum = 10.8°C (+1.5°C) Total Monthly Sun = 84 hrs (144%) Total Monthly Rain = 118 mm (132%)

Outcome: Not bad though much wetter than forecast.

January:

A mild start then turning colder with frequent incursions of Arctic air. The first snowfall is possible, especially mid-month onwards.

Mean Minimum = 2°C (-1.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 8°C (-1.0°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 85 hrs (125%)
Total Monthly Rain = 60 mm (75%)

Mean Minimum = 3.2°C (+0.1°C)
Mean Maximum = 10.3°C (+1.4°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 76 hrs (115%)
Total Monthly Rain = 195 mm (238%)

Outcome: Pretty much a rubbish forecast.

February:

A mixed, unsettled month with cold weather dominating though brief, milder interludes are possible as winds turn westerly.

Mean Minimum = 1°C (-2.0°C)
Mean Maximum = 8°C (-1.0°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 90 hrs (110%)
Total Monthly Rain = 60 mm (100%)

Mean Minimum = 4.3°C (+1.6°C)
Mean Maximum = 10.6°C (+1.8°C)
Total Monthly Sun = 113 hrs (139%)
Total Monthly Rain = 156 mm (252%)

Outcome: The cold never materialised and it stayed very wet though sunshine was well-above normal. Another rubbish forecast!

I don't expect this winter to be record-breakingly cold or mild but rather variable throughout with possibly the colder weather becoming more frequent as the winter progresses. Whilst heavy snowfall may make headlines Up Country, I suspect that we will only see minimal amounts of the white stuff and this mostly over the hills.

Final Analysis:

In the end this was a mild winter dominated by persistent westerlies and south-westerlies meaning it was unsettled, very wet but warmer than normal with the warmest month being February (which I had forecast as being the coldest). As often happens during winter westerlies, sunshine levels were well above normal. This was one of the 'softest', continually mild winters I have known and also the wettest. The mildness has led to an early spring that started before the middle of February.